From food trends—such as the introduction of chocolate to Europeans in the 16th century, to social trends like the mass migration to the U.S. in the 19th century, to the many environmentally conscious trends prevalent today—trends have shaped and defined human progress. They mirror our attitudes, values, desires and dreams.

In earlier times, it was in some ways much easier to observe and experience trends, because we had time to absorb them and enjoy the experiences they offered. Now we live in a multidimensional world where fads and trends overlap and collide with each other, all vying for our attention as they speed around the globe literally at the speed of light. We have learned to filter out much of this information, absorbing only what we see as relevant. In part to help us deal with mass-market clutter, our society fragments itself into subcultures or market segments. It’s through these groups that we can observe a trend incubate and grow from idiosyncratic idea into mass appeal. This was true with the rise of the coffee culture, health and wellness, and the organic movement. If you said you ate tofu 10 years ago, you probably got some strange looks. Now it’s viewed as mainstream. All of these trends start with small groups of influencers committed to their causes.

HOW TRENDS WORK IN THE WORLD
Trends are typically not accepted at first, and in many cases even meet with controversy. Tattoos have moved from teenagers getting inked as a symbol of irreverence and rebellion to middle-aged men and women seeking the same expression. Early trends make many of us feel uncomfortable, because they are “different” and represent change. It is human nature to follow, but it is the individuals who don’t follow—who break the rules and think differently—that the majority ends up emulating. Influencers and early adopters are the ones who step out of the comfort zone and present us with something new.

As a trend gains acceptance, it transforms and changes, taking on a life of its own through those who come to follow it. Early adopters will typically stop following a trend they helped popularize once it grows into the mainstream and is no longer seen as different. A trend’s life cycle looks a lot like a bell curve. Typically, it gains upward momentum as increasing numbers of people adopt it, but once it reaches mass appeal, interest in a trend lessens or stabilizes as it becomes a mainstream idea … or it may simply die out as another trend catches on and begins to grow. The process by which a new trend, idea or product is accepted in the marketplace is called diffusion. The rate of diffusion is the speed by which a new idea spreads from one consumer to the next. Theories abound on the mechanics of diffusion, with Everett Rogers’ Diffusion of Innovations theory being a much-accepted one. (First proposed in the 1962 book Diffusion of Innovations, this theory has been widely published and discussed. A quick web search will bring up numerous commentaries.)

HOW TRENDS WORK IN PACKAGING
Because packaging is so closely linked to consumer preferences, it provides a clear way to evaluate the stages of various trends. It is here that trends are transformed into functional applications—they help sell products. However, package design is also where the adoption of a trend can get complicated. If you are too early, you can miss your target consumer. Too late, and it’s seen as old news. So visual trends need to be applied with careful consideration of the product’s brand and its promise. Does the trend actually fit the brand, and will it attract the right buyer?

In packaging, trends tend to grow slowly, because there are longer lead times in product development cycles. We see early adopters and influencers coming from small start-up brands that have less at risk, while it may take years before big brands catch on to a trend. When we see large brands begin to use specfic trends, we know it is a trend that is toward the top of the bell curve. Within the marketplace it can be challenging to pick out new and emerging trends, as there are many different stages of a trend’s life cycle. Also, consumers are at different stages of acceptance within the bell curve of a trend, so it’s vital to understand the products’ consumers. You must learn the buying habits of specific target audiences in order to better understand their comfort zones and how far the packaging can stretch to motivate a purchase. It’s about knowing how far the brand you are designing for can be pushed.

HOW DESIGNERS CAN HARNESS TRENDS
Designers must understand what motivates and establishes visual trends. For the most part, these concepts are directly influenced by the environment and societal attitudes and beliefs. Emerging artists, underground music, fashion, the internet and small theater companies provide fertile ground to view what will be tomorrow’s visual trends, and although they may ultimately look different in later commercial applications, their roots can be traced back to such origins. These movements are typically five years ahead of the mainstream, and are dependent largely on the pace of a subculture and how extreme the trend may seem. The recent rise of Pop Art and Lowbrow Art in advertising and packaging grew in popularity for years before appearing within mainstream brands like Target, Banana Republic and Coca-Cola. The resulting awareness and fresh artistic flare have given these brands a boost in popularity … along with helping to move the associated visual trends up the bell curve.

Knowing about and watching these movements turn into trends is not enough to bring success; brands need to understand when and why to use a visual trend. As packaging designers, it is our job to entertain, influence, inform and motivate the purchase experience. To do this effectively, we must have a strong sense of what cultural, social and political trends are influencing society at large, as well as being able to discern how these things are affecting our target consumers.

We clearly saw a visual shift after 9/11. For example, car design became more protective, presenting power images through bold, strong design, as seen in the Hummer and Chrysler 300. Popular movies centered on larger-than-life heroes like Spiderman, Fantastic 4 and Superman. Our culture seems to be obsessed with the unknown and supernatural powers as we try to deal with an enemy we can’t see: terrorism. Small indulgences and simple pleasures become popular, reflecting our unease about the future. Portability of food and personal items are more important now—is this due to our busy lives or a need to be ready to run away at a moment’s notice? With such uncertainty in the air, we have come to look for simple pleasures in everything we buy. We want to be surprised, entertained; in a way, you could say—even with everything at our fingertips—that we are bored. We desire a simpler life and so are attracted to products and brands that help us slow down.

Environmental concerns have given life to the sustainability and green movements, which hopefully represent more than simple trends and will mean real behavioral changes affecting all aspects of packaging. Consumers are more aware of materials and the waste that packaging creates. Wal-Mart has gotten into the game, establishing a scorecard rating system that assigns each product a number evaluating its effect on the environment. More people understand the idea of a carbon footprint and are questioning how many resources it takes to bring something to market.

SOME TRENDS DESIGNERS CAN USE
In evaluating packaging and spotting trends, we have to keep in mind that designers are working with a consistent palette of tools that can be viewed as trend-setting in itself. This palette includes color, typography, imagery, structure, form and materials. Any one of these design elements can be a means of expressing a trend.

For this article, we have defined a set of 10 trends in packaging. The 10 trends are influenced by a larger set of strategic issues that grow out of a variety of consumer, artistic, business and media trends (see the chart above). In evaluating and selecting the 10 trends shaping packaging on a global scale, we searched for patterns and reviewed examples regularly talked about in high-level marketing meetings at large consumer-product companies.

This is encouraging because more and more clients are recognizing the strong effect great packaging can have on purchase intent. Not surprisingly, we see store brands or private-label products embracing new trends more readily than the large global brands. This has given rise to consumers involving themselves with store brands more readily, as they feel the packaging is entertaining and engaging. Knowing that design has made the difference is something all designers can use to argue in favor of our industry.

PRIVATE LABEL INNOVATION
Something impacting all trends—and all levels of the economic chain, from marketing to retailing and design—is the rise of private-label products. Once considered to be of lower quality and not as appealing, today’s premium store brands are drawing consumers in all categories. According to a June 2007 Saatchi & Saatchi Global Research Report*, “Private label has been growing at twice the rate of famous household brands over the last 10 years. In fact, sales of Wal-Mart’s private label brands is worth more than Unilever’s, PepsiCo’s and Coca-Cola’s put together, and in more consolidated and sophisticated markets such as the U.K., private label already accounts for about 50 percent of the shopping basket.” Design is a key factor in the increased market share of private labels. Because these upstart brands are more flexible and have less to lose, they take risks that big brands—with more bureaucracy, equity and tradition—are unwilling or unable to venture. Design for private label often does more romancing of the product, frequently through captivating textures or imagery, as compared with megabrands obsessed with making their logos bigger. For example, Michael Osborne Design’s packaging for Williams-Sonoma brand Chinois employs subtle, even exotic visual cues that evoke an emotional involvement with consumers.

* This research was done in conjunction with POPAI, the only nonprofit association serving the global at-retail industry, in a survey looking at private label’s impact in the U.S., U.K., China and Sweden. For more information about POAI and to download a copy of the Saatchi & Saatchi X Private Label research report, visit: www.popai.com/hq